Fresh recession risk in France threatens political crisis

France is on the cusp of a triple-dip recession after a key gauge of manufacturing and services buckled in December, leaving the country trailing far behind Germany and most of the eurozone

The threat of relapse is a major upset for President François Hollande, who has talked up recovery and confidently declared the crisis over.

Markit’s preliminary – or “flash” – index of purchasing managers estimate fell to a seven-month low of 47 in December, far below the “boom-bust line” of 50.

“There is a very real danger that France is slipping back into shallow recession and reinforces concerns about France’s underlying competitiveness,” said Howard Archer from IHS Global Insight, said:

The deteriorating picture for France is in stark contrast to Germany, where manufacturing grew at its fastest clip in 30 months. Markit’s composite estimate including services for Germany rose to a healthy 55.2.