The BOJ has it’s quarterly review of its economic estimates next week and Reuters have sources who say they may be trimmed slightly owing to larger than expected effects of the sales tax hikes.
The BOJ issued it’s projections back in January and expected to see 1.1% growth for the fiscal year to March 2015, but the 8% drop in y/y household spending seen last month may have them revising that lower. Analysts polled by Reuters estimate 0.9% GDP for the same period.
Marginal trimming around the edges of forecasts isn’t likely to have too much of an affect on the market but if they trim it to any large degree we could have a two way move. USD/JPY could fall initially on a knee jerk reaction to the lower forecasts and that then might be reversed if the market starts to think that the BOJ might get pumping again.
It will all probably amount to nothing but it’s worth bearing in mind