Archive for September, 2012
Crude fell in Asia today as doubts over the efficacy of fresh US economic stimulus surfaced following comments from a top Federal Reserve official, analysts said.
New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November sank 33 cents to USD 91.04 a barrel and Brent North sea crude for November delivery shed 49 cents to USD 109.96 in morning trade.
Doubts expressed yesterday by Charles Plosser, head of the Fed’s Philadelphia branch, over the economic impact of the QE3 bond-buying program announced earlier this month dragged markets down, analysts said.
“A high-profile figure in the form of… Plosser questioned the effect QE3 would have, particularly on labour markets,” IG Markets said in a report.
“Many traders feel central bank stimulus is merely a sticking plaster for a broken leg, and that much more needs to be done to send the global economy safely on the road to recovery.”
Plosser’s comments also triggered a large selloff in the US stock markets late Tuesday, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 tanking after his speech.
Nifty Future low marked 5643.60 cmp 5652
Now again closely watch on 5640 level
If break & volume will slide upto 5620 & 5600 level
If not break 5640 if trade above 5675 with 15 minutes
Rock upto 5700 level
Watch on levels
Updated : 01.59pm / 26th Sep
US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high, while home prices posted their biggest annual rise since August 2010, highlighting bright spots in an otherwise sluggish economic recovery.
The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence increased to 70.3 in September from 61.3 in August, above consensus forecasts of 64.8.
Separately, home prices climbed 1.2 per cent from July 2011, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which tracks monthly changes in the value of residential property in 20 metropolitan regions across the US.
Rising home prices and better-performing stock markets have boosted confidence and spending among US consumers, even as unemployment remains above the 8 per cent mark.
The survey of consumer attitudes on the economy assesses perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for the next six months.
The present conditions component increased to a five-month high of 50.2 from 46.5 in August. The measure of expectations for the next six months advanced to 83.7, the highest since February, from 71.1.
Those respondents who expected more jobs to become available in the next six months climbed to 18.5, the highest since February, from 15.8 in August.
The proportion of consumers who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months rose to 16.3 in September, the highest this year, from 16 the prior month.
Meanwhile, the increase in the home price index, which was in line with expectations, was double the 0.6 per cent year-on-year rise seen in June. July brought the second straight month of annual growth and the sharpest gain in nearly two years.
Even as other sectors of the US economy are losing momentum, the housing market is showing tentative signs of recovery.
“Single-family housing starts are well ahead of last year’s pace, existing home sales are up, the inventory of homes for sale is down and foreclosure activity is slowing. All in all, we are more optimistic about housing,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee.
Record-low mortgage rates are drawing more buyers and sopping up the glut of distressed properties on the market that had depressed home prices.
Jim O’Sullivan, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, said rising home prices will boost growth through various channels “including increased consumer spending because of wealth and confidence effects, increased incentive to buy before prices go up some more, and increased incentive to lend because of less chance of mortgages turning delinquent.”
The index for July showed a 0.4 per cent monthly increase compared with June on a seasonally adjusted basis, below the previous month’s 0.9 per cent rise.
In spite of the data showing the slowest monthly gain since February, the report was upbeat, highlighting sweeping gains across the nation.
Phoenix, Detroit, and Atlanta – three cities that had in the past suffered sharp declines in home prices – posted the strongest monthly rises in July.
The alternative measure of national home prices from the Federal Housing Finance Agency rose a softer-than-expected 0.2 per cent in July from June but continued to show a solid positive trend.
Even as economists are encouraged by improvements in the sector that have contributed to an increase in consumer confidence, however, they said a significant improvement in the labour market is still needed for a sustained economic recovery, echoing the Federal Reserve’s assessment.
Chinese growth is set to stabilize in the coming months and will slow to 6 percent in the next decade, according to new research from Barclays.
With Chinese policymakers seemingly reluctant to adopt a more aggressive policy response, the current growth downturn is “as much structural in nature as cyclical,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a research note.
China’s growth potential rate has moderated from 10.4 percent in 2000-2010, to an estimated 8 percent over 2010-2020, and will slow further to 6 percent over 2020-2030, according to the note.
“The main purpose of the current cautious policy expansion is to let growth gradually settle around the new potential growth rate,” the analysts argued.
China’s gradual economic slowdown has come as industrial activity is weakening, especially in the base metal and industrial machinery sectors. There is some good news from activity picking up in the railway and property sectors, and financing for central government-supported infrastructure projects has also improved, according to the report.
Chinese policymakers focus too much on unemployment and inflation indicators to assess the success of their approach, with too many job losses implying below-potential growth and high inflation indicating above-potential growth.
China’s economic growth forecast for 2012 was downgraded to 7.5 percent by rating agency Standard and Poor’s (SandP) on Monday as the Asian tiger feels the burden of the on-going euro zone crisis and a slower-than-expected recovery in the US The growth forecast for Hong Kong this year was also cut to 1.8 percent from the original 2.8 percent by SandP.
The lower forecast for Chinese growth reflects the lack of stimulus by the Chinese government, according to SandP. The International Monetary Fund in July lowered its 2012 growth forecast for China to 8 percent from 8.2 percent.
Signs that the Chinese dragon’s fire is cooling come at an already difficult time for the global economy as Europe’s economies have stalled, the U.S. economy is struggling with continuously high unemployment rates, and growth has started to falter in Brazil and India.
While in 2009 China was regarded to be the savior for the world economy after launching an aggressive stimulus program which allowed it to continue to move ahead, this time around hopes that the world’s second largest economy will provide much support for the world’s economic outlook have dampened.
Billionaire industrialist Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries is preparing to bid in India’s forthcoming mobile auctions, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the country’s battered USD 32 billion telecoms market, according to people familiar with the group.
The move would intensify competition in an already cut-throat sector and set India’s richest man on a long-term collision course with the country’s two leading mobile operators, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone.
It would also signal the determination of Mr Ambani to re-enter a sector he left reluctantly in 2005, after a long-running feud in which his younger brother Anil Ambani took control of their family’s telecoms assets following the division of their wider Reliance conglomerate.
Speculation about future competition between the Ambani brothers has been rife since the 2010 expiry of a non-competition pact forbidding each to enter sectors in which the other operated, part of the peace agreement, brokered by their mother, that ended their public battles.
India’s Supreme Court threw the telecoms industry into turmoil earlier this year by cancelling 122 second generation mobile licences, which allow basic voice and text services, belonging to more than half a dozen operators, citing improper allocations. These licenses will be re-auctioned in November.
“Strategically it makes a lot of sense,” says Rashesh Shah, head of Edelweiss, a Mumbai-based broker. “Given the huge upheaval in the industry it also might be quite a good time to get in … in future only people with staying power and deep pockets will prosper, and Reliance are well qualified for that.”
Mr Ambani’s conglomerate, which earned $67bn last year and has a cash pile of about $13bn, is already planning a “fourth generation” mobile service, offering superfast data services to businesses and wealthy consumers, to be launched next year.
His move to re-enter the telecoms market has invited speculation about a possible tie-up with Reliance Communications, his younger brother’s troubled telecoms group, potentially involving sharing infrastructure or even a possible takeover. Both companies declined to comment on their plans.
Close observers of the elder Mr Ambani say his auction plans carries wider significance, with roots in the break-up of the business empire which his late father Dhirubhai Ambani built from scratch to become India’s largest listed company.
“Telecoms has always been Mukesh’s baby, it was tough for him to give it up,” says one senior Indian business figure, who did not want to be named. “And if they get in they will want to be the dominant player … In the long term they don’t get into businesses where they don’t dominate.”
Those familiar with Mr Ambani’s thinking say his auction preparations are part of plans to augment his 4G proposals with a more traditional “voice” product, a strategy analysts say is more likely to succeed than a data-only offering.
NIFTY FUTURE closed 5683
Yesterday we have wrote Resistance @ 5710
Marked high was 5708.85…… Low was 5661.90
Then closed 5683….
Today’s Nifty Future facing Resistance same level 5710
If trade above the level will test 5735 thereafter non stop rally expected !!!
Today’s Support 5675 if stays below the level 5650 & 5625 next supports
Today & Tomorrow very volatile will be expected
Don’t trade blindly…..
More update to our clients only
Updated : 08.51am / 26th Sep
Banknifty Future : 11445
Today’s Banknifty Future facing Resistance 11475 if trade above
11525 & 11600 next level….
Today’s support 11440 if stays below the level 11375 & 11300 next support level
Huge volatile will be expected !!!
Trade with levels
More Live market update to our clients only
Updated : 08.45am / 26th Sep
JETAIRWAYS trades strong support level 354
Once if break the level, Slide upto 348, 345 level
Closely watch on 354
SUNPHARMA Looking very HOT
Today once if break the level Rocked upto 5% to 8%
Which level ??
Clients special call !!!
M&M Another HOT Call
Huge Short covering will be expected !!!
Once if break the level !!!
clients special call
BHUSANSTEL trades strong Resistance level
Resistance @ 480, Once if cross the level
Catch it !!!
Rally upto 486, 490 Thereafter 500 level…….
Updated : 08.33am / 26th Sep